The Age of Change

The world is changing. It has, of course, changed continuously throughout history, what with wars and plagues and so forth, and the recent New Age movement being but one link in a long chain of social schisms, but this time something different is happening. It's not just the use of convoluted sentences, either.

The history of Man has been marked by a slow, continuous push in the same direction: gaining a better standard of living and increasing consumption. Although there have been regional reversals, the overall direction for mankind has been forward. Now we have almost reached our zenith and for the first time in history we are about to go into a decline.

That statement may sounds a little bold and perhaps over-confident, but let's think things through a little.

In the developed nations we consume far more than the Earth can replace. This is balanced out a bit by the poor nations consuming far less, but as a whole planet we get though about 30% more than can be replaced. This figure is increasing as the poor slowly become richer.

We are working our way through all the known deposits of metals, oil, trace elements etc, so that within 30 years many will be gone, even without the increased consumption of the poor. There are undoubtedly more deposits out there that haven't been found yet, but they are likely to be found deeper in the earth, located and in remote corners of the globe or be less pure. Getting them and refining them will therefore take more effort, consume more resources and cost more.

The easy wins will therefore peter out in a couple of decades, possibly leaving a lack of raw materials as they go. Some things will become scarce, life in general will become more expensive and our standard of living will drop. This will affect the rich nations first, but it will not take long for the developing nations to join the downward plunge as well. It is likely that some people will get angry about life getting tougher, which may lead to an increase in nationalism, xenophobia and protectionist policies. This in turn could lead to friction and even war.

Climate change may or may not be real, but if it is the attendant flooding and droughts will only increase the pressure for conflict. Disasters cost money and in the global community in which we now live, the consequences will not be confined to the afflicted areas but will affect the entire world economy. Blame, protectionism and desperation can be volatile ingredients.

If you are not convinced by all the conceptual blather above, we can follow another train of thought to the same destination. The capitalist model, which most of the developed nations follow, relies on continued economic growth to work successfully. Hense the horror of recession, which is usually nothing worse than a time when growth stops or declines very, very slightly.

But this need for constant growth is a bit like pyramid selling - it can not go on for ever and will have to collapse one day. Why? Well, wealth has to come from something tangible - something grown, mined or made. The recent Credit Crunch has shown that bankers passing IOUs between themselves does not actually create anything, other than fat bankers and a global overdraft. So at some point we will run out of things to fuel the growth, the world economy will not only stop growing but will actually collapse and we will be left with tougher lives, xenophobia and war.

So how can we avoid all this unpleasantness? Well, the only way I can see (and I admit I am not particularly bright) is for us to change the way we live - not only that, but we must change the way we want to live. It is time we evolved away from our gorilla past and into a more enlightened era. If we can do this, the benefits on both an indivdual and global scale will be immense.

My next blog will chat about what this means - the end of the Alpha Male and the rise of Zeta!